Skeptopaths and the real global warming conspiracy
We're constantly being told by the Religious Right that there is a "global warming hoax", where climate scientists are bribed by a shadowy elite to scare us into submitting to a New World Order with global taxation, loss of national sovereignty and "population control" by an engineered mass dieoff of humans. Those same people that do not believe in Anthropogenic Global Warming do believe that Geoengineering is real (Geoengineering also is one of the proposed solutions for AGW), but they believe "Chemtrails" are there to poison them (how the Illuminati are immune, they avoid to discuss).
Here is a dose of reality: Unless humanity comes with new technologies and heroic efforts to apply them against AGW, there is a high likelihood that if you have young children, that global warming will prevent them to die of old age. The part of the shadowy elites is true, except that it's the opposite: Industrialists and other stakeholders bribe and bully climate scientists to cover up the true severity and urgency of climate change. There is a cover-up and this cover-up is complete. No real information is released. Those "elites" have found eager allies from the likes of Alex Jones and most other "truth-seeking" websites. There are now millions of people who believe that AGW is a complete lie and they waste no opportunity to shout this from the rooftops, any time the topic comes up. The more honest the climatologist, the harsher they will insult him. These people are not real skeptics, they're pathological skeptics, skeptopaths. Someone who employs religion, brainwashing, hatred, fearmongering or dogma as "arguments" and eschews science is irrational or has ulterior motives and is not true skeptic. Just because you like to eat meat and drive a SUV (I also do both) and because you believe the world is 6000 years old and God put dinosaur bones in the ground to test your faith does not mean climatologists are all criminals on the Illuminati's payroll.
Global warming is a complex issue. Unless you examine the scientific reality in an unbiased manner, unless you let go of your political and religious bias and look for the hard facts only, you will not discover the truth, which is figuratively but also literally right beneath the surface (of the ESAS, the East Siberian Arctic Shelf).
Those climatologists, of which 97% support the claim of serious AGW (Anthropogenic global warming) don't even need much nudging from the "elites" to cover up the true magnitude of the impending catastrophe. Scientific reality, important discoveries have nearly always been fought tooth and nail by scientists' peers. Out of envy, out of financial interests, out of dogmatic reasons or wanting to protect one's job or professional esteem. And often simply out of laziness, a disinterest in spending significant effort to learn of the facts.
The global warming conspiracy consists of the fact that all global warming scientists know that their models are completely useless because they're fake. They're designed by political committee. Their models are based on false and incomplete data, false and incomplete assumptions and the scientists refuse to incorporate empirical measurements and known positive feedback mechanisms (mechanisms that increase warming all by themselves and keep doing so until the average global temperature increases so much that it will kill off most life on the planet).
So instead of climatologists being overly alarmist, there's a massive cover-up going on, orchestrated by "shadowy elites" ("oil-igarchs" that pull the strings of governments, fuel-exporting countries, developing countries such as China, large industries that would face massive regulation etc.). It used to be that no one wants to face what used to be necessary to prevent disaster, namely stop eating meat (about a third of global warming is caused by agriculture for animal feed as well as raising the animals themselves), use a bicycle instead of a car, don't take planes, and so on. A meagre existence. That's what you get, with 8 billion people on this planet. The size of the Earth is of no significance, concerning global warming. All that counts is the mass of our atmosphere (negligible) and oceans. Nearly all global warming happens in the oceans. Only a couple percent happens on land or in the air. The significant recent rise in sea levels is mainly caused by water expanding when it gets warmer. Glacial melt is slowly starting to contribute some millimeters recently though.
Note how I used the words "it used to be". Because we have arrived at a point where nothing ordinary people can do or stop doing will make any difference. If the whole world would stop using hydrocarbon fuels and became vegetarians, we'd get the same result: Your children would likely die as a consequence of global warming. Global warming can not be stopped anymore, and it will get extremely severe in your children's lifetime. And I repeat: They will likely die because of it. It's really that bad. I truly believe this, based on the evidence. I hope it will not happen. But I think it will, and no vegetarianism, cycling to work or global taxation can fix it.
Electric cars will make matters much worse, until they can be recharged with solar-electricity instead of electricity made by burning hydrocarbons. I do not use the term "fossil fuels" because fossil fuels do not exist - that preposterous concept, when you examine the details is also a conspiracy by Big Oil and Big Coal. Oil, gas and coal are all, and always of abiogenic origin and the management of the oil companies have known that for a very long time. The planet produces oil and gas in its mantle and the supply will never run out. That's why there literally is oil everywhere you drill, when you drill deep enough, and that's why oil wells re-fill, slowly. And that's why they never found even the tiniest of fossils in oil. Oh - and that's why it's possible to synthesize oil in the lab, using nothing more than Calcium Carbonate, water and extremely high pressure and moderately high temperature.
Back to planetary apocalypse. Unless we put up an umbrella in space to shield the Arctic or unless we start with some kind of "chemtrails", increasing the albedo of the Earth, the global genocide, the near-complete extermination of all life on Earth is certain. Geo-engineering or bust. It has happened before when a lot of carbon entered the atmosphere, during the Great Permian Extinction for example or the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum. The great majority of life on Earth died during those times, 90 percent of species went extinct and those periods were much less severe in speed of onset and magnitude of carbon release as what's now steamrolling towards us with the speed of a bullet train, eight billion people being sitting ducks in a cruel experiment that went awry.
The real problem, the thing that's going to kill more than 90% of life on Earth is not CO2. CO2 is merely the trigger. The actual planet-buster is Methane, Methane from the East Siberian Arctic Shelf in particular, because there the Methane is right underneath the sea floor, in shallow water that is rapidly heating up due to the retreating arctic ice cover, which warms up the ocean and allows winds to mix the warm surface water into the shallow sea.
There's a lot of nonsense espoused about Methane. Mainstream climate scientists say that "Methane is a 22 times stronger greenhouse gas than Carbon dioxide". Sure.. Averaged over a century! The first few years, Methane is a 500 to 1000 times stronger "forcing" gas than CO2. That's the real figure. But we should only care about what happens in the first few years after the clathrates (methane hydrates) start melting and evaporating. I'll tell you what will happen: In the very first year and the year thereafter, that Methane will cause a thousand times stronger warming, gram-for-gram, than CO2 does. The only scientists that ever took the trouble to physically examine, drill into and measure the methane in the ESAS found that Methane levels are exponentially rising there, with the risk of 3.5% of it evaporating "any time". That would be 50 GT (Gigatonnes, an immediate warming equivalent to 25 TT (Teratonnes) of CO2, which translates to at least a 25,000,000,000,000,000 kg CO2 or 12,725,000,000,000,000,000 liters of CO2 warming equivalent), and it would cause up to six degrees of warming in just a few years, like five years. We're leaving the decomposition of the organic matter in the melting terrestrial permafrost out of the equation - taken into account, the result would be much worse. As you perhaps understand from these figures, it's unfeasible to capture so much gas from the atmosphere and inject it into rock formations. A "machine" the size of a continent or even a planet takes years, resp. took generations, to produce the gas. A machine to makes things right would have to be of similar size. Our only chance is to prevent the Methane from forming in the first place.
Six degrees of warming would mean mass starvation until only the richest people in the richest, most powerful countries are left alive. It would mean the death of our oceans and the end of nearly all agriculture nearly everywhere. Even two degrees would be catastrophic, and that's even by mainstream concensus. Two degrees would mean widespread crop failures every year, worldwide due to drought. Four degrees would mean mass migration of nearly the entire African continent to Europe, and they'd be prepared to die trying. Six degrees would mean nuclear war, mass genocides, mass starvation, the loss of all our remaining forests, the complete death due to acidification of our oceans and humanity reduced to becoming subsistent farmers. All coastal cities will be gone. Coastlines are fractals and can not be protected. City dwellers will have to migrate in their tens of millions to a countryside that can not sustain them. Hundreds of millions will become homeless.
Entire countries will disappear, such as the Netherlands. Optimists envision a future where cold fusion generators powering massive desalination plants and giant air-conditioned "bubbled" cities, but I'm pessimistic. Humanity hasn't even been able to cure the common cold. Russia, Europe and the US have a rapidly declining economy. If anyone will survive this, it will be some people in Alaska, Siberia, North Scandinavia and Canada. If they buy sufficient guns and ammo and stick together until the rest of the world has died off.
Since there is nothing we as a species can do anymore except geo-engineering, I find it ironic how some people consider "chemtrails" to be some kind of "extermination project" by the "Illuminati" to kill us all off so that they will inherit the Earth and let the work be done by robots. In reality, Chemtrails do not exist. They're much more pronounced because AGW has cooled the stratosphere and cleaner jet fuel burns with much smaller particles:
And the real global warming scientists, the ones the other climatologists won't listen to, the ones banned and boycotted at climate conferences, the ones working tirelessly and selflessly to educate us on what's coming, are being accused by false "truthers" of being corrupt moronic psychopaths, working for god knows who, the "shadowy elites". Religion and dogma are powerful drugs. If you're dumb or lazy enough, you don't even need those in order to be persuaded that 2+2=5 without religion and dogma telling you so. Most people do not understand reality and they do not want to.
What can we do? Everyone should strive to live in an area where there can still be practiced agriculture, also when the climate has become much warmer, with much less reliable rainfall. Everyone should strive to have access to a garden and learn how to grow food, using a minimum of water. Learn to compost. Learn to limit evaporation and percolation. Learn to become self-sufficient with ducks, potatoes, corn, beans and squash. Commercial agriculture will collapse. Only intensive culturing methods will have a chance. Food will become extremely expensive or largely unavailable in many regions, until the human population has stabilized to a sustainable level. Prepare your children. And ask them for forgiveness.
By Frank de Groot, April 18, 2016